CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-03-28T15:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/38071/-1
CME Note: This event is visible to the east/northeast in SOHO LASCO C2 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. This CME is still developing and only early imagery is available as a result. The source is related to an eruption and X1.1 flare from Active Region 14046 starting around 2025-03-28T15:00Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. A subsequent wide opening of field lines can be observed in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery at this time as well.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-03-31T10:16Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-03-31T03:47Z (-9.27h, +10.84h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note: 
Time of Launch: 2025/03/28 15:25Z
Plane of Sky 1: 18:00Z; 31.5Rsun; ENE Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 01:00Z; 31.5Rsun; WSW Direction
POS Difference: 7:00
POS Midpoint: 21:30Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 6:05

Numeric View/Impact Type: 0
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~9.92
Travel Time: ~9.92 * 6:05 = 60:22

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2025-03-31T03:47Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh


Forecast Creation Time: 2025/03/29 13:47Z
Lead Time: 44.12 hour(s)
Difference: 6.48 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2025-03-29T14:09Z
CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy